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Tuesday, 09 March 2010 11:36

รื่นเริงหลังผ่านคดียึดทรัพย์ อดีตนายกฯทักษิณ ได้ไม่เท่าไหร่ ตลาดหุ้นไทย ก็ต้องกลับมาหมุนเป็นรูปสี่เหลี่ยมอีกครั้ง เพราะบรรดาแม่ทัพนายกองแห่งกองทัพเสื้อแดง ไม่ฟังเสียงขู่เสียงปลอบจากรัฐบาล และคำวิงวอนของประชาชนที่ต้องการเห็นความสงบ ผ่านการสำรวจของโพลล์ต่างๆ


แต่กลับแสดงความมุ่งมั่นอย่างเต็มที่ ที่จะใส่เกียร์เดินหน้ารถเก่าป้ายแดงทั้งหลาย ทั้งอีแต๋น กระบะ และสารพัดพาหนะที่มี มุ่งตรงสู่เมืองหลวง เพื่อปิดจ๊อบสอยอภิสิทธิ์ และรัฐบาล ให้ร่วงคามือให้ได้


ไม่ต้องไปวิเคราะห์วิจารณ์ให้เสียเวลา ปล่อยให้สถานการณ์เป็นผู้เฉลยคำตอบของตัวเองจะสะดวกกว่า เราๆท่านๆบรรดานักลงทุน ก็ไม่ต้องไปใส่ใจอะไรมาก อาทิตย์ก่อนกำไรมาเยอะพอควรแล้ว อยากจะถอยออกจากตลาดชั่วครู่ ไปรอนั่งดูมวยตู้ชุดใหญ่ช่วงสุดสัปดาห์นี้ ก็ไม่น่าจะเสียหายอะไร


ส่วนคนที่ยังไม่ได้มีหุ้นติดปลายนวม ก็ไม่น่าจะต้องรีบร้อน ปัจจัยพื้นฐานตลาดหุ้นบ้านเรายังดีอยู่ เงินทุนยังไหลเข้า เอเชียยังเด่นสุดในโลก นั่งกระดิกน้อยก้อยเท้าซ้ายไปพลางๆก่อน รอจังหวะให้กระต่ายตื่นตูมเมื่อไหร่ แล้วค่อยเข้าช็อป ก็ไม่สาย


หันมาดูทางฝั่งตลาดเงิน สัปดาห์นี้มี ไฮไลท์อยู่ที่ การประชุมคณะกรรมการนโยบายการเงิน(กนง.) ธนาคารแห่งประเทศไทย(ธปท.) ในวันพุธ ว่าจะดำเนินนโยบายอัตราดอกเบี้ยต่อไปอย่างไร


งวดนี้ยังไม่ต้องลุ้นอะไรกันให้เหนื่อย เพราะทุกสำนักทุกโพลล์ ฟันธงลงไปในทางเดียวกันหมดว่า รอบนี้ อัตราดอกเบี้ย อาร์/พี 1 วัน ซึ่งเป็นอัตราดอกเบี้ยนโยบายของไทย จะยังนอนนิ่งอยู่ในระดับต่ำสุดเป็นประวัติศาสตร์ที่ 1.25%


แต่ที่ต้องติดตามชมกันแบบใกล้ชิดหน่อย คือ การส่งสัญญาณจากแบงก์ชาติ ว่าจะเริ่มกลับมานับหนึ่งขยับดอกเบี้ยสู่ขาขึ้นได้เมื่อไหร่


ถ้าดูจากแอ็คชั่นของคนแบงก์ชาติ ไล่เรียงตั้งแต่ ผู้ว่าการฯ รองผู้ว่าการฯ ผู้ช่วยผู้ว่าการฯ ในช่วงที่ผ่านมา ต้องบอกว่ามีความกระตือรือร้นกับการขึ้นอัตราดอกเบี้ย มากกว่าปกติวิสัยที่เคยเป็นมาของชาววังบางขุนพรหม


ไม่ใช่ให้ลองไปค้นหาข่าวเก่าๆมาดู จะรู้ว่า ธปท. จะคอยแทงกั๊กซ่อนกิ๊กเรื่องดอกเบี้ยไว้ตลอด ต่อให้จะขึ้นอยู่รอมร่อแล้ว ก็ยังเก็บเงียบสงวนท่าทีเอาไว้ตามสไตล์ทุกกระเบียดนิ้ว


แต่มารอบนี้ เปิดต้นปีมา ผู้บริหารแบงก์ชาติ ก็ดาหน่อยย้ำถึงความจำเป็นของดอกเบี้ยขาขึ้นแล้ว พูดแล้วพูดเล่าๆ จนคนที่เคยลังเลว่า ธปท.จะขึ้นดอกเบี้ยปีนี้หรือเปล่า ตอนนี้หันมาฝังหัวไปแล้วว่า ปีนี้ขึ้นแน่ เพียงแต่จะขึ้นเมื่อไหร่เท่านั้น ที่ต้องคอยแทงหวยกันไป


แน่นอนว่า เหตุผลหลักอย่างหนึ่งที่ แบงก์ชาติ จำเป็นต้องขึ้นดอกเบี้ยในปีนี้ คือ อัตราเงินเฟ้อที่กลับมาแล้ว และมีแนวโน้มที่จะเร่งตัวขึ้น โดยเฉพาะในหมวดอาหาร และหมวดสินค้าอุปโภค ทั้งหลาย เมื่อเงินเฟ้อมา ดอกเบี้ยก็จำเป็นต้องขยับขึ้นมาคุมเอาไว้ เป็นเครื่องมือและกลไก ที่ตลาดเงินต่างๆก็ใช้กัน ไม่ได้เป็นอะไรแปลกใหม่


ส่วนที่น่าหนักใจแทน ธปท. ก็คือ จะขึ้นยังไงถึงจะเป็นผลดีมากที่สุด เพราะถ้าเศรษฐกิจปกติแล้ว โตได้แข็งแกร่งแล้ว การขึ้นดอกเบี้ยอาจจะแค่กระทบจิตวิทยาตลาดบ้าง แต่ก็ไม่มีผลมากนัก เนื่องจากทุกคนเข้าใจได้ว่า ต้องขึ้น เพราะเศรษฐกิจโต


ถ้าไม่ขึ้นจะเป็นผลลบมากกว่า เนื่องจากจะยิ่งไปหนุนให้เงินเฟ้อวิ่งได้เร็วขึ้น และอาจจะเร่งความเร็วจนเข้าสู่ระดับที่เกินควบคุมในระยะต่อไปได้


อย่างไรก็ตาม ในรอบนี้ เงินเฟ้อมา ขณะที่การฟื้นตัวของเศรษฐกิจทั้งในและนอกประเทศ ต้องยอมรับความจริงว่า ยังอยู่ในภาวะที่เปราะบางอยู่ จะให้คาดหวังว่ามีภูมิต้านทานร้อยเปอร์เซนต์ ต่อการขึ้นอัตราดอกเบี้ย ก็คงพูดได้ไม่เต็มปาก ทำให้การตัดสินใจขึ้นดอกเบี้ยของแบงก์ชาติ ยังต้องออกอาการกล้าๆกลัวๆอยู่


หนำซ้ำเงินบาทช่วงนี้ ก็แข็งได้แข็งดี และถ้ามองภาพยาวออกไปหน่อย การฟื้นตัวของเศรษฐกิจสหรัฐที่ช้ากว่าเอเชีย และสภาพคล่องในตลาดเงินที่ถูกอัตราฉีดเข้าไปมาก ก็จะทำให้ดอลลาร์ยิ่งจะอ่อนค่าลง เมื่อเทียบกับสกุลเงินเอเชีย รวมถึงเงินบาท


ดังนั้น ถ้า ธปท.ไปรีบขึ้นดอกเบี้ยอีก ก็จะยิ่งดึงเงินไหลเข้าให้สูงขึ้น บาทก็จะยิ่งแข็ง กระทบต่อการส่งออก และโยงไปสู่จีดีพี เป็นความยุ่งเหยิงที่รออยู่ และน่าจะทำให้ ธปท. ที่แม้อยากจะขึ้นดอกเบี้ยแค่ไหน แต่ก็คงต้องยอมจำนนต่อสถานการณ์แวดล้อมไปก่อน


ข้อสรุปของตลาดในตอนนี้ จึงมองกันไปที่การประชุม กนง. ครั้งสุดท้ายของครึ่งปีแรก คือ ในเดือนมิ.. ว่าจะเป็นจุดที่ ธปท. น่าจะกล้าขยับดอกเบี้ยขึ้นได้ เพื่อชะลอเงินเฟ้อเอาไว้


จากนั้น ก็จะรอดูราคาน้ำมัน รอดูมาตรการค่าครองชีพของภาครัฐ ว่าจะไปในเส้นทางใดต่อ ถ้าปัจจัยต่างๆ ไม่ได้ทำให้เงินเฟ้อเร่งตัวขึ้นมา ครึ่งปีหลัง แบงก์ชาติก็อาจจะขึ้นดอกเบี้ยอีกสักขั้น เพื่อรักษาเทรนด์ขาขึ้นเอาไว้


ยกเว้นแต่ ราคาน้ำมัน ราคาสินค้า และความต้องการบริโภคในประเทศพุ่งแรงจริงๆ การบวกจากระดับปัจจุบันไปอีก 1% จะเป็นวิสัยที่สามารถเกิดขึ้นได้ แม้จะมีโอกาสไม่มากนักก็ตาม

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